链接：https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.5c03584

Keywords: Vanadium; Critical Metal; Low-carbon Industry; Material Flow Analysis; Trade Network; Circular Economy

Abstract: Vanadium is a critical metal widely used in the steel and energy storage industries, offering new strategies for achieving a global low-carbon transition. However, knowledge of global vanadium flow patterns remains limited. Here, we employed material flow analysis associated with complex network analysis to reconstruct the global anthropogenic vanadium cycle from 1988 to 2023 and to characterize the trade patterns across the global vanadium supply chain. The results show that 4291.2 kt of vanadium was extracted from mining during this period, with 2310.3 kt entering the global market as refined products. High-strength low-alloy steel (30.8%) and carbon steel (28.0%) dominated semifinished product consumption, while the buildings and infrastructure (34.1%) and transport (30.2%) sectors were the major contributors to in-use stocks. While the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Germany played pivotal roles in maintaining global trade connectivity, China emerged as the dominant exporter of downstream vanadium products. Analyses of the network efficiency and supply concentration highlight the structural fragility of the global vanadium supply chain. Mitigating potential supply risks requires coordinated global efforts to enhance collaboration, improve utilization efficiency, and strengthen recycling from in-use stocks.

图1. Historical patterns of the accumulated global vanadium cycle during 1988 to 2023: (a) Cumulative global vanadium cycle, (b) cumulative vanadium end-use products by region, (c) cumulative scrap by end-use sectors by region, and (d) cumulative in-use stocks by region. All values are presented in metric kilotons, equivalent to the vanadium metallic content.

图2. Topological structure, trade concentration, and structural vulnerability of the global vanadium supply chain: (a) Modularity-based trade flow map of vanadium commodities in 2023, (b) ranking of key countries based on network analysis indicators, (c) temporal evolution of HHI across different vanadium product categories from 1988 to 2023, and (d) robustness analysis of the vanadium trade network. “All commodities” refers to total vanadium trade volume, including ores, vanadium pentoxide (V2O5), semifinished products, end-use products, and scraps.

图3. Cumulative vanadium in-use stocks, resource availability, per capita in-use stocks distribution in 2023, and interannual variations in major regions.

第一作者：李玉

通讯作者：袁增伟